# Valero Stock Q3 2026: Earnings Jump as Refining Margins Nearly Triple
> Valero stock Q3 2026: operating income rose to $9.07bn from $1.51bn, the refining margin hit $39.24 a barrel, EPS was $23.89 and a $10bn buyback was added.

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## Facts
- Ticker: VLO
- QSILabs fair value: $352.20 USD
- Price: $381.46 (as of 2026-11-02)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30, reported 2026-10-22); balance sheet from Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30; price as of 2026-11-02 close
- Fiscal period: Q3 2026 (July-September 2026)
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/valero-stock-q3-2026-earnings-crack-spreads-buybacks/

## Short answer
Valero stock Q3 2026 is a story of a refining boom that the market already doubts will last. In the three months to 30 September 2026, Valero Energy's refining margin was $39.24 for every barrel it processed, up from $13.14 a year earlier, as diesel and gasoline margins over crude oil roughly tripled. Operating income rose to $9,073m from $1,509m, diluted earnings per share rose to $23.89 from $3.53, and on 27 October the board authorised a new $10.0bn share buyback. The shares closed at $381.46 on 2 November 2026, up 134.3% for the year but 17.0% below their October high. Our discounted cash flow model values the shares at $352.20, about 0.92 times the price; the gap comes mainly from our assumption that margins, now the highest in Valero's recent history, fall back to their long-run average by 2032.

## Key takeaways
- Operating income rose sixfold. Operating income was $9,073m, up from $1,509m a year earlier and $5,196m in the June quarter. Revenue rose 43% to $46,098m.
- Refining did almost all of it. The refining segment earned $8,782m, up from $1,610m, on a margin of $39.24 a barrel. Throughput fell 3.7% to 2.97m barrels a day; the Benicia refinery has not refined since April.
- Diesel led the margin surge. On the US Gulf Coast, diesel sold for $72.27 a barrel more than Brent crude, up from $21.05; gasoline's margin rose to $24.08 from $7.78.
- Renewable diesel and ethanol turned up too. Renewable diesel earned $353m after a $28m loss a year earlier, and ethanol earned $272m on production of 4.8m gallons a day, which Valero called a new quarterly record.
- A lot of cash went back. Valero returned 52% of its adjusted operating cash flow of $7.25bn in the quarter, spent $6.2bn on buybacks in the first nine months and still ended September with $9.84bn of cash against $11.0bn of debt and finance leases.
- Our value: $352.20 a share, against a $381.46 close on 2 November 2026. Across costs of capital from 7.4% to 9.4% and terminal growth from 1.5% to 3.5% the model gives $305.61 to $439.32. Analysts' average target is $426.89.
- What to watch. Whether diesel margins hold into 2027, the heavier global maintenance season that Valero expects next year, the Houston refinery purchase from LyondellBasell, and the pace of buybacks under the new $10.0bn programme.

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