# UnitedHealth Stock Q3 2026: Medical Care Ratio Falls to 88.4% as Profit Rebounds
> UnitedHealth stock Q3 2026: revenue of $112.7bn, a medical care ratio of 88.4%, operating profit up 52% to $6.6bn and a raised 2026 EPS guide. UNH risks.

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## Facts
- Ticker: UNH
- QSILabs fair value: $380.02 USD
- Price: $406.97 (as of 2026-10-30)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30, reported 2026-10-13) and Q2 2026 10-Q; price as of 2026-10-30 close
- Fiscal period: Q3 2026 (calendar)
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/unitedhealth-stock-q3-2026-earnings-medical-costs-optum/

## Short answer
UnitedHealth stock Q3 2026 rests on a quarter of recovering profit rather than growth. In the three months to 30 September 2026, UnitedHealth Group's revenue was flat at $112.7bn, but its medical care ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9%, earnings from operations rose 52% to $6.6bn and adjusted earnings per share rose to $4.69 from $2.92. The company raised its full-year 2026 outlook to at least $19.50 of GAAP EPS and at least $20.50 of adjusted EPS. It also served 1.8m fewer medical members than a year earlier as it priced for margin. Our discounted cash flow model values UnitedHealth at $380.02 a share, against a $406.97 close on 30 October 2026. The shares price in a fuller margin recovery than we assume.

## Key takeaways
- Revenue flat, profit up. Q3 2026 revenue was $112,694m, down 0.4% from $113,161m. Earnings from operations rose to $6,563m from $4,315m, and net earnings attributable to shareholders rose 75% to $4,110m.
- Medical care ratio of 88.4%. Medical costs took 88.4% of premiums, down from 89.9% a year earlier. The quarter included $610m of favourable reserve development for earlier 2026 dates of service; without it, the ratio would have been about 89.1%.
- Both halves of the group earned more. UnitedHealthcare's operating margin rose to 3.3% from 2.1%. Optum's rose to 5.6% from 3.6%, led by Optum Health, whose earnings from operations rose to $735m from $41m.
- Fewer members. UnitedHealthcare served 48.3m medical members at 30 September, down from 50.1m a year earlier. Medicare Advantage fell to 7.6m from 8.4m and Medicaid to 6.7m from 7.5m.
- Guidance raised. UnitedHealth now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $20.50 and GAAP EPS of at least $19.50. After $18.30 of adjusted EPS in the first nine months, that implies at least $2.20 in Q4.
- Cash and returns. Operating cash flow was $25.1bn in the first nine months, up 35%. UnitedHealth paid $6.2bn of dividends and bought back $5.0bn of stock.
- Our value: $380.02 a share, about 7% below the $406.97 close on 30 October 2026. A two-stage cross-check gives $374.73. The average of 26 analyst targets is $476.64.
- What to watch. Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook, which will show how much of the 2026 margin repair carries into 2027 premium rates, membership and the Medicare Advantage medical care ratio.

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