# Progressive Stock Q3 2026: Policies Up 6% With a Combined Ratio of 88.7
> Progressive stock Q3 2026: policies rose 6% to 40.5m and the combined ratio was 88.7; EPS fell to $4.37 on investment losses as rate cuts slowed premiums.

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## Facts
- Ticker: PGR
- QSILabs fair value: $324.01 USD
- Price: $233.92 (as of 2026-11-02)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30, reported 2026-10-14); balance sheet from Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 (filed 2026-11-02); price as of 2026-11-02 close
- Fiscal period: Q3 2026 (July-September 2026)
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/progressive-stock-q3-2026-earnings-policies-combined-ratio/

## Short answer
Progressive stock Q3 2026 is a story of more customers paying a little less each. Progressive reported total revenues of $23,192m for the three months to 30 September 2026, up 3.0%, and net income of $2,542m, or $4.37 a share, against $2,615m and $4.45 a year earlier. Policies in force rose 6.3% to 40.5 million and the combined ratio, claims and expenses as a share of earned premiums, was 88.7, well inside the company's goal of 96, but average premium per personal auto policy fell 2% as Progressive cut rates in response to competition. The shares fell 4.2% on results day and closed at $233.92 on 2 November 2026, up 2.7% for the year. Our discounted cash flow model values the shares at $324.01, about 1.39 times the price; the gap comes mainly from a low 6.92% cost of equity, while the model assumes margins come down from today's levels.

## Key takeaways
- Revenue grew 3%. Total revenues were $23,192m, up from $22,512m. Net premiums earned rose 4.9% to $21,869m and investment income 12.0% to $1,035m, but securities produced a net realized loss of $170m against a $295m gain a year earlier.
- Earnings dipped on investment losses. Net income fell 2.8% to $2,542m and diluted earnings per share to $4.37 from $4.45. Pre-tax income before realized gains and losses rose about 12%.
- Underwriting stayed strong. The companywide combined ratio was 88.7, against 89.5 a year earlier, an underwriting margin of 11.3%. A year earlier the ratio included 4.6 points of Florida policyholder credits; without them it would have been 84.9.
- Customers kept coming. Policies in force rose 6.3% to 40.49 million, with direct auto up 7.9% and agency auto up 6.7%. Net premiums written rose 4.3% to $22,301m, slower than policy growth because average premiums fell.
- Prices are falling. Average written premium per policy fell 2% in personal auto and 3% in core commercial auto. Progressive said it faces "continued increase in competition in the marketplace".
- Our value: $324.01 a share, against a $233.92 close on 2 November 2026. Across costs of equity from 5.92% to 7.92% and terminal growth from 1.5% to 3.5% the model gives $243.71 to $531.93. Analysts' average target is $230.38.
- What to watch. Claim severity, which rose 4% in personal auto; the pace of rate cuts; the size of the annual variable dividend declared in December; and the $1.0bn of notes due in early 2027.

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