# Merck Stock Q3 2026: Sales +5% on Keytruda Qlex and Winrevair
> Merck stock Q3 2026: sales up 5% to $18.1bn on Keytruda Qlex, Gardasil and Winrevair, guidance raised, sac-TMT filed. Our MRK valuation and the risks.

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## Facts
- Ticker: MRK
- QSILabs fair value: $92.29 USD
- Price: $149.52 (as of 2026-10-30)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30); price as of 2026-10-30 close
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/merck-stock-q3-2026-earnings-keytruda-qlex-winrevair/

## Short answer
Merck stock in Q3 2026 is a bet on what replaces Keytruda. Sales rose 5% to $18.09bn, Keytruda and its new under-the-skin form Keytruda Qlex brought in $8.60bn between them, and Merck narrowed its 2026 sales guidance to $66.8-67.3bn. About $550m of the growth came from the timing of customer purchases. Our risk-adjusted NPV puts Merck at $92.29 per share, about 38% below the $149.52 close on 30 October 2026: the market is paying for a pipeline that will refill the Keytruda gap after 2028, and our model gives that pipeline credit only for the probability that each drug succeeds.

## Key takeaways
- Valuation: QSILabs values Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) at $92.29 per share as of Q3 2026, against a $149.52 close on 30 October 2026, about 38% below the market price. Our bear and bull cases are $76.59 and $109.08.
- Q3 2026 results: Merck's sales rose 5% to $18.09bn in the quarter ended 30 September 2026; net income was $5.07bn, GAAP EPS $2.04 and non-GAAP EPS $2.49, against $2.32 and $2.58 a year earlier.
- Keytruda: Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales rose 6% to $8.60bn, 48% of Merck's sales. Keytruda Qlex reached $830m, 10% of the franchise, up from $128m in Q1 2026.
- Quality of growth: about $550m of pharmaceutical growth came from the timing of purchases. Without it, total sales would have grown about 1.5%.
- Guidance: Merck now expects 2026 sales of $66.8-67.3bn (previously $66.3-67.3bn) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.77-2.82 (previously $2.66-2.76), after $6.05 a share of one-time charges for the Cidara, Terns and SciBrunch deals.
- Pipeline: the FDA accepted sac-TMT in endometrial cancer for priority review (PDUFA 15 June 2027), and intismeran plus Keytruda cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial.

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