# ExxonMobil Stock Q3 2026: Refining Margins Double Earnings to $15.4bn
> ExxonMobil stock Q3 2026: earnings up to $15.4bn as refining margins hit $50 a barrel, $19.1bn of free cash flow, $20bn of 2027 buybacks. XOM risks.

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## Facts
- Ticker: XOM
- QSILabs fair value: $168.66 USD
- Price: $187.25 (as of 2026-10-30)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30); price as of 2026-10-30 close
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/exxonmobil-stock-q3-2026-earnings-refining-buybacks/

## Short answer
ExxonMobil stock Q3 2026 results were the strongest in years: earnings doubled to $15.4bn from $7.5bn a year earlier because refining margins nearly doubled in a quarter, even though oil prices eased. Adjusted EPS was $4.23, free cash flow was $19.1bn and ExxonMobil promised $20bn of buybacks for 2027. Our discounted cash flow model puts ExxonMobil at $168.66 per share, about 10% below the $187.25 close on 30 October 2026: the market is pricing today's margins as if they last, and our model does not.

## Key takeaways
- Valuation: QSILabs values ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE: XOM) at $168.66 per share as of Q3 2026, against a $187.25 close on 30 October 2026, about 10% below the market price. Our value was $149.62 before the quarter.
- Q3 2026 results: earnings were $15.41bn ($3.72 a share) in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against $7.55bn ($1.76) a year earlier; adjusted earnings were $17.51bn ($4.23 a share).
- Refining: Energy Products earned $7.17bn, up from $1.84bn, on an indicative refining margin of $50.3 a barrel; higher margins added $7.66bn to the segment's earnings.
- Production: output was 4.50 million oil-equivalent barrels a day, down from 4.77 million a year earlier, as Middle East and Kazakhstan disruptions took volumes away and cost Upstream $860m of earnings in the quarter.
- Cash and returns: operating cash flow was $25.7bn and free cash flow $19.1bn in Q3; ExxonMobil paid $4.3bn of dividends and bought back $5.1bn of stock, and plans $20bn of buybacks in 2027.
- Balance sheet: net debt fell to $22.1bn at 30 September, nearly $11bn lower than at the start of the year.

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