# Eli Lilly Stock Q3 2026: Revenue +39% on Mounjaro and Zepbound
> Eli Lilly stock Q3 2026: revenue up 39% to $24.4bn on Mounjaro and Zepbound, 2026 guidance raised to $91-92bn. Our LLY valuation and key risks.

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## Facts
- Ticker: LLY
- QSILabs fair value: $565.79 USD
- Price: $1,417.54 (as of 2026-10-30)
- As of: Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-09-30); price as of 2026-10-30 close
- Published: 2026-11-02
- Updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: QSI Labs Research
- Canonical: https://www.quantitativesuperintelligencelabs.com/research/eli-lilly-stock-q3-2026-earnings-mounjaro-zepbound/

## Short answer
Eli Lilly stock in Q3 2026 rests on one molecule. Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, brought in $16.1bn of Lilly's $24.4bn of quarterly revenue, and total revenue grew 39% as volume rose 53% while prices fell 15%. Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $91-92bn. Our risk-adjusted NPV puts Lilly at $565.79 per share, about 60% below the $1,417.54 close on 30 October 2026: the market is paying for a franchise that lasts well beyond tirzepatide's patents, and our model does not.

## Key takeaways
- Valuation: QSILabs values Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) at $565.79 per share as of Q3 2026, against a $1,417.54 close on 30 October 2026, about 60% below the market price. Our bear and bull cases are $421.11 and $709.31.
- Q3 2026 results: Lilly's revenue rose 39% to $24.40bn in the quarter ended 30 September 2026; net income rose 16% to $6.45bn and diluted EPS rose 16% to $7.22, or $7.48 on a non-GAAP basis.
- Tirzepatide: Mounjaro ($10.72bn, +65%) and Zepbound ($5.35bn, +49%) made up 66% of Q3 revenue.
- Guidance: Lilly now expects 2026 revenue of $91-92bn (previously $85-87bn) and non-GAAP EPS of $35.00-36.00 (previously $35.50-36.50), the cut reflecting $4.57 of acquired IPR&D charges.
- Quality of the beat: about $900m of Q3 revenue came from one-off benefits, mainly $410m of Jardiance milestones, with no further milestones to come.
- Cash and deals: Lilly generated $27.4bn of operating cash flow in the first nine months of 2026 and spent $18.2bn on business development; total debt rose $7.0bn to $49.5bn.

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